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PhD Thesis viva-voce on Reliable Climate Change Projections Over India Through Dynamical Downscaling Using Very High-resolution Regional Climate Model 
Monday, 19 August 2019,  3:00 -  5:00
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PhD Thesis viva-voce
 
TITLE: Reliable Climate Change Projections Over India Through Dynamical Downscaling Using Very High-resolution Regional Climate Model
 
SPEAKER: C B Jayasankar (AcSIR Enrol. No. 10PP13A45002)
 
DATE & TIME: August 19, 2019 (Monday) at 3:00 PM
 
VENUE: Seminar Hall, CSIR 4PI Network Building
 
ABSTRACT: In this study, we dynamically downscaled an appropriate General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs using a skilful, reliable very high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) of Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to obtain reliable climate change projection over India and it's orographic west coast. The analysis of the projected changes in mean and extreme events over India and ecologically sensitive,     densely populated west coast were carried out after a detailed evaluation of the present-day simulation of ISM by this high-resolution RCM. This high-resolution model with 3-km resolution over WG region resolves orographic features enabling realistic simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics of present-day Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and extreme events over WG, in particular the recent trends in ISM rainfall as observed. Present study establishes the importance of (i) employing skilful high-resolution model, (ii) use of bias-corrected boundary data sets and (iii) configuring model for realistic present-day climate over complex topographic coastlines such as the west coast of India, in order to achieve useful climate change projection information. These climate projections can be effectively used for decision making and adaptation measures in various sectors such as agriculture, hydrology and power generation.Greater skill of this high-resolution RCM driven by NCAR-CCSM4 (one among the reliable CMIP5 model) during present-day provides better confidence in its future climate change projection at the regional scale. Future projections using high-resolution RCM under the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario show consistent future enhancement in surface air temperature over India, with an increase of ∼3K over the southern west coast of India. Future ISM rainfall projection shows intensification over most parts of India and significant reduction (∼2 mm/day) over southern WG. Reduction over WG (10-20% of present-day mean) is found to be due to upper-tropospheric warming effect that stabilises the atmosphere and suppress the rainfall. Projected changes in extreme events show an overall increase in warm days and warm nights over India with maximum increase over South India and widespread increase in extreme rainfall days over most of India (especially central India) except over WG. Projection of consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days implies a wetter future for most parts of India but strengthened drought conditions for WG. Projected changes in wind extremes show strengthened (weakened) low (high) winds probability over WG and increase (decrease) in very high (low) winds over other parts of India.
 
 
All are welcome
Location Seminar Hall, CSIR 4PI Network Building

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